Yes or No: Ireland Keeps its Commissioner

I interviewed Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt on the fringes of the meeting where he admitted the Swedes are working on a contingency plan in case of a no vote. He also gave a pretty frank assessment of what is likely to happen if the Irish public finally deals a death blow to the Lisbon treaty.

According to Reinfeldt, a no vote would be respected and the Nice treaty would prevail. Contrary to some of the exaggerated claims of yes campaigners the sky wouldn’t fall on Ireland’s head. It is the EU as a whole that would be damaged as the endless navel-gazing EU institutional debate continues to divert attention from other important issues.
But it was his comments on how to cope with the stipulation in Nice- that the number of commissioners must be less than the number of states in the next EU executive- that were most interesting. He said a “26 plus one” plan is favoured by diplomats and the probable solution. This would see 26 states retaining their commissioner and the 27th state getting the plum job of EU foreign affairs chief instead to comply with the Nice treaty rules.

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