U.S. Air Force Study Proposed 2009 Influenza Pandemic in 1996

On June 17, 1996, the U.S. Air Force released Air Force 2025, “a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future.” In the unclassified study, the College of Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama posed several “fictional representations of future situations/scenarios” likely to arise.

In Chapter 5, the authors present a timeline figure representing “plausible history.” In 2009, according to the figure, influenza will kill 30 million people. “A similar influenza pandemic occurred in the past,” a footnote explains, making a reference to the influenza epidemic of 1918 and 1919, described as “one of the worst human catastrophes on record. It has been estimated that more than 20 million people around the world died during the epidemic, and of the 20 million people who suffered from the illness in the United States, approximately 850,000 died.”

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